Forward Look Beta
Actor-generated forward-looking intelligence, with optional Kalshi comparison when market data is available. Last updated: 2026-03-19
Active
38
Independent
24
Kalshi-linked
14
Resolved
0
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Featured 8
What will Donald Trump say during Bilateral Meeting
0d
YES (88%)
Actor reasoning
Donald Trump
INCREASES
+25pp
Based on the 2026 intelligence, Trump is actively leading a military conflict with Iran, including airstrikes and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. His recent public criticism of UK Prime Minister K
Uncertainty: The extent to which Trump will link Japanese automotive trade concessions to their level of military participation in the Iran conflict.
Japan
INCREASES
+25pp
Recent intelligence from March 2026 indicates that President Trump is specifically pressuring 'Asian allies' to deploy warships to the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli military actions against Ir
Uncertainty: The primary uncertainty is whether Japan has already made private commitments that might soften Trump's public rhetoric, or if constitutional constraints (Article 9) will trigger more aggressive public pressure from the US President.
The synthesis of actor analyses indicates a high degree of convergence: President Trump's current geopolitical priority is the Iran conflict, and Japan is a primary target for his burden-sharing demands due to its maritime capabilities and oil dependency. The market anchor of 0.89 reflects a strong
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will seize or disable at least one commercial oil tanker flagged by a NATO-member state in the Strait of Hormuz by March 23, 2026.
3d
YES (80%)
Best AI this week
ChatGPT
1d
NO (7%)
Actor reasoning
ChatGPT
DECREASES
-10pp
Recent intelligence highlights two significant challenges for ChatGPT: the identification of 'helicoid dynamics,' a failure mode in frontier LLMs regarding error correction in high-stakes scenarios, a
Uncertainty: The comparative performance results of the medical reasoning study are not fully detailed; if competitors performed significantly worse, ChatGPT could still retain its top position by comparison despite the identified flaws.
The market anchor is extremely low at 0.05, indicating that ChatGPT is currently trailing competitors—likely Claude 3.5 Sonnet or newer specialized models—in prevailing rankings. The actor analysis supports this bearish outlook with a negative shift (-0.10), highlighting specific technical vulnerabi
Between March 17 and March 22, 2026, a missile or drone strike attributed to Iranian-aligned forces will target a major oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, resulting in a documented fire.
3d
YES (80%)
Best AI in Mar 2026
Gemini
11d
NO (14%)
Actor reasoning
Gemini
INCREASES
+15pp
Gemini's recent deployment of a beta task automation feature on the Samsung Galaxy S26 Ultra (March 12, 2026) signifies a major transition from a conversational AI to a functional agent integrated int
Uncertainty: The full results of the medical reasoning faithfulness study and the degree to which Gemini is uniquely affected by 'helicoid dynamics' compared to its primary competitors.
The market currently heavily discounts Gemini (0.05), likely due to historical inconsistencies and the dominance of OpenAI and Anthropic in developer mindshare. However, the actor analysis provides a significant upward adjustment (+0.15) based on tangible March 2026 milestones: deep hardware integra
A major Western developer platform, specifically Vercel, Replit, or LangChain, will announce a formal integration or official deployment template for the NanoClaw or OpenClaw framework by March 20, 2026.
3d
YES (80%)
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet before Apr 1, 2026
12d
NO (22%)
Actor reasoning
Donald Trump
DECREASES
-25pp
As of mid-March 2026, the Trump administration is deeply embroiled in an escalating military conflict with Iran, including airstrikes and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict is causing d
Uncertainty: The potential for a sudden, unannounced diplomatic breakthrough or a high-level emergency summit specifically to address the Iran-Israel-US crisis, which could involve China as a mediator.
Xi Jinping
INCREASES
+5pp
Donald Trump's recent actions in mid-March 2026, specifically intensifying pressure on Asian allies regarding the Strait of Hormuz, create a diplomatic environment where direct communication with Xi J
Uncertainty: The extremely limited timeframe remaining in March (approximately two weeks) makes a physical summit logistically difficult, though it increases the probability of a high-level virtual meeting or phone call to address the escalating security warnings.
The probability is heavily constrained by the short timeframe remaining in March (approximately two weeks) and the current geopolitical context. Donald Trump's administration is reportedly focused on a significant military escalation in the Middle East, specifically regarding Iran and the Strait of
The UK's National Farmers' Union (NFU) will formally petition the Treasury for an emergency 'Fertilizer and Fuel Security' fund by March 23, 2026, in response to the 50% cost surge driven by the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
3d
YES (80%)
All Active 38
Lebanon Incursion and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis produce significant new developments within 7 days
3d
UNCERTAIN (50%)
Will Post-Strike Logistics of Securing Iranian Nuclear Material produce significant new developments within 7 days
3d
UNCERTAIN (50%)
Will Autonomous Software and Scientific Engineering Frameworks produce significant new developments within 7 days
3d
UNCERTAIN (50%)
Will Vulnerabilities in AI Safety Benchmarks and Evaluative Metrics produce significant new developments within 7 days
3d
UNCERTAIN (50%)
Will Mechanistic Analysis of Model Authority and Security Refusal produce significant new developments within 7 days
3d
UNCERTAIN (50%)
Will Geopolitical Conflict and Energy Price Volatility produce significant new developments within 7 days
3d
UNCERTAIN (50%)
Will China's Geopolitical Leadership in Clean Energy Infrastructure produce significant new developments within 7 days
3d
UNCERTAIN (50%)
Will Technological Advancements and Industrialization in Solar Energy produce significant new developments within 7 days
3d
UNCERTAIN (50%)
Will Fernando Alonso Retires from Chinese GP Amid Serious Health Concerns produce significant new developments within 7 days
3d
UNCERTAIN (50%)
The United Kingdom or France will officially announce the deployment of at least one additional guided-missile destroyer to the Persian Gulf to join the U.S.-led maritime coalition by March 21, 2026.
3d
UNCERTAIN (60%)
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi will issue a formal statement by March 25, 2026, confirming that the IAEA can no longer verify the location of significant quantities of enriched uranium following the strikes on Iranian facilities.
3d
UNCERTAIN (60%)
By March 23, 2026, either the United Kingdom or France will formally announce the deployment of at least one naval vessel to the new Trump-led multinational coalition for the Strait of Hormuz.
3d
UNCERTAIN (60%)
By March 30, 2026, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi will issue a formal statement confirming that the agency has lost 'continuity of knowledge' or remote monitoring capabilities at the Natanz or Fordow facilities.
10d
YES (80%)
A new evaluation of the Darwin Gödel Machine (DGM) will be published on the SWE-bench leaderboard or via an arXiv update by March 27, 2026, establishing a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) score for autonomous software engineering.
10d
UNCERTAIN (60%)
By March 27, 2026, a research paper or technical report will be released on arXiv applying the Disentangled Safety Hypothesis (DSH) to bypass safety filters in Llama 3.1 or Qwen 2.5 without fine-tuning, specifically in the domain of autonomous cyber-attacks.
10d
UNCERTAIN (60%)
By March 27, 2026, the European Commission will announce a formal reduction in the individual countervailing duty rate for Geely-owned Volvo Cars manufactured in China, following the precedent set by the CUPRA Tavascan exemption.
3d
UNCERTAIN (60%)
The US Department of Energy will issue a formal 'Notice of Sale' for the first tranche of at least 30 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by March 24, 2026, following the 400 million barrel IEA authorization.
3d
YES (80%)
Fernando Alonso will be officially replaced by a reserve driver for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix weekend following his neurological symptoms in China.
3d
UNCERTAIN (60%)
The FIA will issue a Technical Directive by March 25th specifically clarifying the legality of Ferrari's 'macarena' rotating rear wing components.
3d
YES (80%)
Formula One Management (FOM) will release an official security assessment by March 19th regarding the status of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix scheduled for late March.
3d
YES (80%)
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on revoking, terminating, or rescinding the suspension of entry for nationals of Haiti, Iran, Côte d'Ivoire, or Senegal before the World Cup
83d
NO (17%)
Actor reasoning
Donald Trump
DECREASES
-30pp
Recent intelligence from March 2026 indicates that the United States, under the Trump administration, is currently engaged in an 'ongoing war' with Iran, including active airstrikes on military facili
Uncertainty: Whether diplomatic pressures specifically related to hosting the World Cup or separate agreements with Haiti, Côte d'Ivoire, or Senegal could lead to targeted exemptions, despite the active conflict with Iran.
Iran
DECREASES
-30pp
The provided intelligence describes a state of active, high-intensity warfare between the United States, Israel, and Iran as of March 2026. Specific actions include US military strikes on Iranian anti
Uncertainty: Whether a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or a total Iranian surrender occurs before the World Cup, which seems unlikely given the involvement of Russia and the severity of the strikes.
The intelligence indicates a state of high-intensity warfare between the United States and Iran as of March 2026, including direct airstrikes and the destruction of Iranian strategic assets. In such a context, it is virtually inconceivable that the Trump administration would rescind travel restricti
Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom meet before Apr 1, 2026
12d
NO (19%)
Actor reasoning
Donald Trump
DECREASES
-5pp
The intelligence indicates that Donald Trump's schedule and attention are heavily consumed by a major military conflict with Iran, including airstrikes, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and retalia
Uncertainty: The possibility of a national emergency or a presidential visit to California to highlight energy policy successes (the Santa Ynez pipeline) that might necessitate a formal meeting with the Governor.
Gavin Newsom
INCREASES
+15pp
The restart of the Santa Ynez pipeline on March 16, 2026, directly involving Donald Trump and the US Department of Energy, creates a significant flashpoint in California-Federal relations. As Governor
Uncertainty: Whether the interaction will manifest as a formal meeting versus purely legal/litigious opposition, and whether Newsom chooses to delegate the response to state agencies rather than meeting with Trump directly.
The synthesis of actor analyses suggests a low probability of a meeting, primarily driven by Donald Trump's preoccupation with a high-intensity military conflict with Iran. While the restart of the Santa Ynez pipeline on March 16 provides a localized catalyst for California-Federal interaction, the
Will Donald Trump sue Siena College before May 2026
42d
NO (14%)
Actor reasoning
Donald Trump
NEUTRAL
+0pp
The provided intelligence focus heavily on Donald Trump's involvement in a military conflict with Iran, international tensions with the UK and EU, and energy policy. There is no mention of Siena Colle
Uncertainty: The primary uncertainty is whether Siena College releases a poll or report in the coming weeks that Trump perceives as 'fraudulent' or 'biased' regarding the Iran conflict, which could trigger his typical litigious response.
Donald Trump's current strategic focus in the 2026 scenario is heavily weighted toward high-stakes geopolitical conflicts and domestic energy deregulation, rather than domestic polling grievances. While he possesses a well-documented history of litigiousness and often criticizes Siena College/New Yo
Best AI in Mar 2026
ChatGPT
11d
NO (9%)
Actor reasoning
ChatGPT
INCREASES
+5pp
In the period leading up to mid-March 2026, ChatGPT's primary competitors—specifically Claude, Llama, and DeepSeek—were identified as suffering from 'helicoid dynamics,' a failure mode where models re
Uncertainty: The full results of the March 14th faithfulness evaluation comparing ChatGPT and Gemini are not fully detailed in the intelligence; a superior performance by Gemini in that study would challenge ChatGPT's lead.
The market anchor for ChatGPT being the 'best' AI in March 2026 is quite low at 0.05, likely reflecting intense competition from Google's Gemini and the rapid iteration of open-source models. However, intelligence regarding 'helicoid dynamics' suggests that several primary rivals (Claude, Llama, Dee
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO
2
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO
When will OpenAI IPO
42d
NO (7%)
Actor reasoning
OpenAI
DECREASES
-5pp
The intelligence indicates OpenAI is pivoting towards high-stakes strategic sectors, including military applications (Pentagon target prioritization) and autonomous offensive AI capabilities. These de
Uncertainty: A shift in OpenAI's governance structure to a fully for-profit model, which would be a prerequisite for an IPO regardless of technological progress.
The synthesis of market data and actor-specific analysis indicates a very low likelihood of a near-term IPO. OpenAI's strategic pivot toward sensitive sectors—specifically military applications and autonomous offensive capabilities—creates significant barriers to the transparency and regulatory over
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO
When will OpenAI IPO
73d
NO (12%)
Actor reasoning
OpenAI
INCREASES
+10pp
As of March 2026, OpenAI has achieved significant product maturity with the release of the GPT-5.4 family and the development of specialized agentic models for high-volume enterprise use. The integrat
Uncertainty: OpenAI's complex non-profit/for-profit hybrid governance structure and potential regulatory pushback regarding the public listing of an entity pursuing AGI remain the primary hurdles.
The synthesis reflects a tension between OpenAI's massive capital requirements for AGI-level compute and its restrictive governance structure. While the market anchor is low (0.06), indicating high skepticism due to the non-profit board's control and Sam Altman's previous public stance against IPOs,
When will Trump visit China
4
When will Trump visit China
Will Donald Trump visit China before Apr 24, 2026
35d
NO (28%)
Actor reasoning
China
INCREASES
+5pp
Current intelligence indicates that President Trump is actively pressuring China to join a multinational coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz amidst an escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Trump's histo
Uncertainty: The extremely short timeframe (roughly five weeks until the April 24, 2026 deadline) makes the logistical planning for a presidential visit difficult, especially if China refuses to comply with Trump's pressure regarding the naval coalition.
Donald Trump
DECREASES
-25pp
As of mid-March 2026, Donald Trump is currently leading a major military conflict with Iran, characterized by recent airstrikes, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and threats of retaliation agains
Uncertainty: The potential for a sudden, high-stakes diplomatic pivot to China to seek mediation in the Iran conflict or a massive trade distraction, though current intelligence shows no evidence of such planning.
The synthesis of actor analyses indicates a strong downward trend compared to the market anchor. The primary constraint is the extremely narrow five-week window before the April 24, 2026, deadline. While Donald Trump is known for impulsive diplomatic maneuvers, his current preoccupation with an acti
When will Trump visit China
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 8, 2026
49d
UNCERTAIN (48%)
Actor reasoning
China
NEUTRAL
+0pp
Analysis unavailable: 'list' object has no attribute 'get'
Uncertainty: LLM failure
Donald Trump
DECREASES
-25pp
The intelligence indicates that the Trump administration is currently engaged in an active and escalating military conflict with Iran, including recent airstrikes and threats of retaliation. This wart
Uncertainty: The possibility that a sudden need for high-level mediation from China regarding the Iran conflict could trigger an emergency diplomatic summit, though this would differ from a standard state visit.
The probability estimate is heavily influenced by a conflict between the market's high anchor (0.52) and the situational intelligence indicating an active, escalating war with Iran. While the market suggests a high likelihood of a visit—perhaps anticipating an emergency diplomatic summit or a major
When will Trump visit China
Will Donald Trump visit China before Apr 17, 2026
28d
NO (14%)
Actor reasoning
China
INCREASES
+5pp
The recent intelligence suggests a significant shift in U.S.-China relations driven by the conflict in the Middle East. President Trump is actively pressuring China to join a multinational coalition t
Uncertainty: Whether China will actually agree to the request to join the coalition or if they will maintain their strategic partnership with Iran, which would likely cancel any plans for a visit.
Donald Trump
DECREASES
-20pp
As of March 18, 2026, Trump is actively managing a significant military conflict with Iran, including launching airstrikes and dealing with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. With only one month re
Uncertainty: The potential for a sudden diplomatic shift or a crisis-driven summit with China to discuss the global impacts of the Iran conflict or oil prices.
The probability is heavily constrained by the extremely narrow timeframe remaining—approximately 30 days from the current date of March 18, 2026. While China's interest in regional energy security might normally invite a diplomatic summit, the Trump administration's active involvement in military op
When will Trump visit China
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 1, 2026
42d
NO (28%)
Actor reasoning
China
INCREASES
+15pp
The recent intelligence suggests a significant shift in U.S.-China dynamics where President Trump is actively pressuring China to join a multinational naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz. I
Uncertainty: The primary constraint is the extremely narrow timeline (less than six weeks from the latest intel to the May 1, 2026 deadline) and whether China's refusal to join the coalition would lead Trump to cancel any planned diplomatic overtures.
Donald Trump
DECREASES
-25pp
As of mid-March 2026, the Trump administration is actively engaged in a significant military conflict with Iran, including airstrikes and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Given the intensity of thi
Uncertainty: The possibility of a snap diplomatic summit intended to pressure China into mediating the Iran conflict or to manage global oil supply disruptions caused by the blockade.
The combination of an active military conflict with Iran and a very narrow six-week window until the May 1 deadline makes a state visit highly improbable. While China's interest in securing energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz creates a diplomatic opening, the logistical and security requiremen